Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-27 29.482459 35.004267 41.026287 48.050320 55.985753 64.640774 74.761212
2025-08-03 21.726931 29.162116 38.031046 49.251301 62.920255 78.881521 98.767800
2025-08-10 16.492502 24.501843 34.772411 48.610258 66.443657 88.317947 116.808246
2025-08-17 13.347712 21.659258 32.993855 49.077379 70.757792 98.389301 135.615398
2025-08-24 10.839382 19.126013 31.092832 48.887950 73.845564 106.723473 152.305801
2025-08-31 8.548946 16.437736 28.505411 47.292097 74.657876 111.843639 164.780408
2025-09-07 7.303726 15.134967 27.719313 48.073515 78.654448 121.256848 183.188656
2025-09-14 5.936871 13.352251 25.915433 47.066348 79.872353 126.742363 196.322079
2025-09-21 5.203079 12.549790 25.561313 48.199466 84.225289 136.738571 215.992320
2025-09-28 4.097759 10.807687 23.371004 46.128380 83.481061 139.241980 225.044830
2025-10-05 3.689430 10.386455 23.435137 47.749347 88.517768 150.374539 246.811376
2025-10-12 3.304277 9.934700 23.374748 49.118556 93.180020 161.077008 268.250131
2025-10-19 2.931648 9.485033 23.357327 50.729909 98.612818 173.610726 293.533212
2025-10-26 2.556038 8.948643 23.114255 51.938853 103.498821 185.597896 318.589895
2025-11-02 2.080024 8.020991 21.928136 51.267222 105.117822 192.494920 336.134509
2025-11-09 1.769652 7.446584 21.395055 51.754014 108.712656 202.610328 358.877301
2025-11-16 1.465080 6.787517 20.565230 51.556498 111.043938 210.725253 378.713901
2025-11-23 1.134756 5.916771 19.092361 49.892386 110.586116 214.196712 391.300006
2025-11-30 0.978348 5.576180 18.837556 50.707288 114.687645 225.340893 416.356994
2025-12-07 0.771437 4.954728 17.764056 49.656940 115.205427 230.433756 431.801154
2025-12-14 0.676519 4.739426 17.718432 50.838625 120.015043 242.976089 459.644001
2025-12-21 0.497915 4.054882 16.256204 48.678578 118.191951 243.974093 468.565904
2025-12-28 0.448447 3.959606 16.459293 50.369244 124.037880 258.532905 500.267896